Szczesniak: Russian oil wins the fight

– The results of the global hunt for Russian oil are not impressive. Russia increased oil sales, it achieved colossal profits and completely changed its sales markets within a year. Now he's repairing the damage, caused by sanctions and returns to controlling the world market.

In the article "How Russian oil escaped the propaganda campaign" (How Russian oil escaped the attack | Think Poland ( I described, how Russian oil companies dealt with problems and pitfalls, which the West had pledged for them. Today it is worth summarizing the results of this clash. Because the West thinks, that Russia has suffered an oil failure. This is what the International Energy Agency announces, but how could it be otherwise?, it was she who forced Europe to impose energy sanctions against Russia, difficult, for her to brag about her failure now.

Because indeed, Russian oil emerged victorious from this clash. Although the blows were strong - the European market was taken away, asset looting, chasing oil around the world with a "price ceiling". They had an effect, taking a lot of money from Moscow, but despite this, Russian oil is doing great, brings huge profits and conquers new markets, and today he starts playing to limit his losses, that is, a reduction in discounts, forced by Western pressure.

First, money. Last year did not strangle Russia financially, he did not take away her basic source of income. On the contrary – v 2022 r. exports increased in tonnage by 7%, and income increased by 43%, what brought 384 billions of dollars (to 2/3 Polish GDP).

Of course, you could earn more, because you had to pay for everything in cash - from the cheaper one 30 USD ropy, to much higher freight or insurance fees. But the Russians gritted their teeth, they survived the worst of times. After the imposition of EU sanctions, Russian oil exports dropped significantly in pipeline deliveries, which froze (like "Friendship" through Poland) or significantly reduced transmission (Slovakia, Hungary, The czech republic). However, exports by sea were growing rapidly. Instead of going to Europe, the oil flowed to India and China, which now they buy up to 80% Russian exports (China 2,3 mln a Indie 2,2 million b/d in April). In both of these countries, Russia ranks first among suppliers. Expands sales to Africa, South America (especially fuel), establishes a strategic energy alliance with Pakistan.

In May '23, Russian oil exports reached a historic record, which finally led to it, that fry, which the Russians were forced to pay – has decreased. Data from India and China showed a sharp decline in discounts. They weren't actually that high to begin with, as advertised by the agencies, their quotations did not agree with the importers' statistical data. However, not only Western traders and importers benefited from this, but also Russian tycoons. Taxes made this possible, calculated on international quotations. If you negotiated a better price for Russian oil than indicated by Western agencies... the profit was huge. Also Russian business, for the impressive logistic return to the east, he obtained very tangible benefits. Rosneft announced this publicly, who made great money on the Siberian ESPO grade of oil, exported to Asia, because the discount on it was small, and taxes were calculated on the agency Urals quotations. But the Kremlin tolerated it, because extremely high profits greatly motivated Russian business to look for new markets, changing export directions and dealing with obstacles multiplied by the West.

For a year, until summer 2023 mining was growing, and what's more interesting, the number of wells was increased by several percent, which leads to the opening of new deposits. Investments in the raw materials industry increased by several dozen percent last year - both in the oil and coal industries.

In general, Russia has lost a lot due to sanctions, she was not paid for oil, coal, so much, how many others. But they were still great prices, because v 2022 r. speculation drove prices very high, income, especially from oil, they were powerful. Suffice it to say, that Russia in this very sanctions year of '22 had a stunningly excellent exchange balance: received in Russia 227 billions of dollars net - the highest in its entire history.

Of course, Russian income has dropped significantly this year, almost by half. But it's worth reminding, that and v 2019, i 2020 and 2021… incomes were lower than today. When it comes to crude oil. The real problem is with natural gas, but oh well, when pipelines explode...


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