The Taiwan Strait has been one of the hottest spots in the world for years. The communist authorities in Beijing recognize Taiwan as “a rebellious province” and they sharpen their teeth more and more to subjugate the rebellious island. The overwhelming majority of Taiwanese, remembering the fate of Hong Kong, whose independence has been brutally trampled underfoot by the red dictatorship in recent years, looks anxiously at the prospect “reunification” your country with mainland China.
The aggressive tendencies of China are trying to cool down the Americans, who are arming and supporting Taiwan. Therefore, the conflict over a small island may be the beginning of a bloody clash of two superpowers, which would be far more damaging to global stability than the current war between Russia and Ukraine.
“For now, the Americans are succeeding in operating on two fronts, that is, contain Russia in Ukraine and China in East Asia. What if China attacked Taiwan?, it would be the US that would have to choose, and it is obvious, that they would choose Taiwan. This is a fatal scenario for Poland, because at that point, the United States would be redeploying its troops to East Asia and concentrating even more on that region. Anyway, if we listen to some Republican senators, they say it directly, that it has to be done. So if that happened, it will be at the expense of Ukraine and at the expense of us. As a result, it will strengthen Russia, that's why she dreams of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait - believes prof. Michal Lubin
However, the expert emphasizes, that we are still far from such a development. The Chinese still have hope, that Taiwan can be annexed by political means. An invasion would be a last resort for them, the more so that conquering Taiwan would be very difficult militarily. It is an island, which is mountainous, surrounded by strong sea currents, the weather is uncertain, Japan is nearby, unknown, how would the United States behave. So there's an awful lot of uncertainty here," he explains.
Prof. Lubin pays attention, that there is always a risk, that there will be an uncontrollable cascade of various events, that could lead to war in East Asia, that's all the action so far around Taiwan is though “rather a kind of diplomatic-military show”.
“War is an element, which sells very well in the media and the Chinese have an interest in it, to threaten war, because it shows their power. At the same time, thanks to this, the Taiwanese can obtain more weapons from the US and strengthen their position, he points out. “China, on the other hand, is still not ready to attack Taiwan. they don't know, how would Japan react, how would the United States behave. These are very large uncertainties. And China is not acting like Russia, which attacks first, and then takes diplomatic action. They are rather cautious in this matter - sums up prof. Lubin.