SPECULUM VERUM
The political expert of the region said, referring to the visit of the US Secretary of State to Central Asia: The elites of the mentioned countries may involve their countries in dangerous adventures in an effort to gain more benefits from the confrontation between the great powers..
According to Javan Online report, quoted by Fars, "Sergei Kozhmyakin", an expert on political and security issues in the region, in a note that he provided to the Fars news agency reporter in Dushanbe, while reviewing the results of the recent visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Central Asia, emphasized: The elites of Central Asia, while trying to gain as much profit as possible from the confrontation between the great powers, may involve their countries in dangerous adventures, including military adventures, which can have very heavy consequences for them..
The text of this note is as follows.
In the stage of deep transformations of the international relations system that is underway, even the most minor and apparently insignificant actions of the main players in the regional and global geopolitics are not accidental, but they pursue serious and long-term goals, which the recent visit of the US Secretary of State "Anthony Blinken" to Central Asia can be discussed exactly in this direction.
During more than 3 decades of independence of Central Asian countries, contacts between them and America have been made regularly. Since America considers itself the only superpower that has the right to dictate its will to the whole world, it cannot be indifferent to Central Asia.. Key geographical location in the heart of Eurasia and rich resources (Uranium, oil, gas, gold, etc) has placed Central Asia in the ranks of regions that are considered very important for providing the national interests of "Washington"..
America in order to consolidate its position in this region of the decade 1990 and exerting influence in economic, political, information and cultural fields. Creation of "5+1" template per year 2015 which provided the ground for regular and planned contacts between the US foreign ministries and Central Asian countries, is considered an important stage in Washington's relations and cooperation with this region.
In order to achieve the desired goals, in addition to intergovernmental contacts, America also uses various soft power mechanisms.. Through media and Western-oriented non-governmental organizations, as well as various programs funded by America and the West, Washington managed to form a lobby, although not numerous, but active and influential, which is present in various fields, from the educational system to the military and security institutions. are serious. It is worth noting that American influence groups, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, have strong roots..
However, Washington understands that it cannot compete with Russia and China in this region. The great success of America's regional policy in Central Asia, which was achieved in the first decade of the new century with the establishment of military bases in this region, was only possible with the informal agreement of Moscow and Beijing, and as soon as this so-called consensus was lost, the Americans would use this element very much. They lost the importance of their presence in Central Asia.
However, during the last year, the situation has changed dramatically and the competition of important powers has become quite obvious. Now Washington clearly emphasizes that it will not allow the revision of the world order and the strengthening of its competitors, the main of which are China, Russia and Iran.. The escalation has led to confrontations in all key regions, including Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and, of course, Central Asia.. For this reason, the previously routine events have taken on a much more important meaning today.
The visit of the US Secretary of State to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and the holding of the "5+1" meeting can be seen as a clear example of such events. In my opinion, this visit had two "layers".. The first layer, which is more important, is more symbolic. First, the US foreign minister arrived in this region just a few days after the first anniversary of the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, and secondly, Blinken arrived in this region before his trip to India to participate in the group meeting. 20 He also attended the quadrilateral dialogue meeting of the United States, India, Australia and Japan, which was created to fight Beijing's influence, in Central Asia.. In this way, Washington wanted to show its capabilities and send the message to Russia and China that "countries with close relations with you, such as the Central Asian republics, are ready to expand interactions and cooperation with the United States.".
The second layer consisted of specific proposals aimed at strengthening Washington's positions. Including Blinken promised that America 25 It will allocate millions of dollars for the economic and social development of Central Asia and compensation damages caused by the imposition of sanctions against Russia. The so-called promise of "carrot" was accompanied by "stick" and the countries of the region were asked not to help Moscow to circumvent the sanctions, because otherwise they will taste the bitter taste of their disobedience..
The high-ranking American guest did not hide his wish that he would like to see the countries of the region in the camp of allies in Washington.. For this purpose, in his press conference, he asked all countries to "unite against Russian aggression".. Blinken also clearly emphasized that Central Asian countries can also become victims of Russian aggression.
Although the goals of American hegemony were clearly stated, it seems that the elites of Central Asia will continue to move in the direction of multi-dimensional or multilateral foreign policy that was established in the decade 1990 had determined, they will continue. For example, the President of Kazakhstan, Kasem Zhamert Takayev, thanked the US for "supporting the independence, territorial integrity, and national sovereignty" of his country and assured that Blinken's visit "is very important, especially in terms of creating more motivation for strategic cooperation between the two countries." Is".
The leadership of Uzbekistan had a similar reaction to the visit of this American political official. In addition to the issues of bilateral relations, in Tashkent there is also the issue of the meeting of the "Council of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between the Central Asian countries and the United States". (TIFA) which is going to be held soon in the city of "Samarkand", was discussed.
All in all, Washington can consider the goals of its foreign minister's trip to Central Asia as achieved. Of course, at first glance, this trip did not bring any kind of important agreement, but it does not seem that such a goal was on the agenda in relation to this trip.. It was important for America to present this message to the world, especially Russia and China, who have influence in this key region. This fact will definitely give America more courage and in the near future we should expect more decisive measures to strengthen Washington's influence. Therefore, the possibility of efforts to return military bases to the region under the pretext of "fighting terrorist threats from Afghanistan" is not unlikely..
The elites of Central Asia, while trying to gain as much profit as possible from the confrontation between the great powers, may involve their countries in dangerous adventures, including military adventures, which can have very heavy consequences for them..