Is a new Germany emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War??

Prof. Dr. Kemal Inat, Germany's decision to provide arms support to Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War, How the country affects its place in world politics and its internal dynamics. 3 wrote in question.
1 • Is Germany changing its geostrategic stance??

Russia's war against Ukraine 1. as the year passes, One of the issues that come to the fore in the analysis of the effects of this war on the international political system is how Germany was affected by the war.. Germany's largest 4. Considering that the economy is, It can also be said that it has the capacity to affect the global political and economic system, especially the European Union, with its decisions..

It can be said that there were two important changes in Germany's foreign policy with the Russia-Ukraine War.. Firstly, It seems that Berlin's long-standing policy of balance against Moscow has come to an end, and Germany has clearly taken a position against Russia behind the United States and on the side of Ukraine.. In his Alman Leopard 2 The decision to send tanks to Ukraine shows the point Berlin has reached in support of Ukraine.. After long discussions, Germany both allowed the tanks that it sold to other countries to be delivered to Ukraine and announced that it would directly give these tanks to Ukraine.. From the beginning of the war, he avoided being a direct party to the conflict with Russia., Germany, which has always been criticized for being slow on military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, With this decision, it became one of the leading countries in the war waged by the West against Russia..

Secondly, In the face of Russian attacks against Ukraine during the war, Berlin's decision to seriously increase its military spending and establish a strong army, It is a policy change that can have important consequences for both Germany and the global system.. Germany, especially after the negative role played by Nazi Germany in the Second World War, he focused on improving his economic capacity and preferred to follow the USA in security issues, keeping his military expenditures low.. The fact that it will increase its military expenditures above 2 percent of its gross national product will make Germany the third country with the highest military expenditure in the world..
2 • Is Germany taking on a new role??

It is possible to argue that Germany, which abandoned its policy of balance regarding Russia and decided to become one of the largest military powers in the world, assumed a new role first in Europe and then in the world.. This role is US, It can be said that it has different meanings for Europe and the rest of the world.. First of all, from the point of view of the USA, Increasing Germany's military spending (NATO) It was a constant demand by almost all American presidents that he should contribute more to his military strength.. Donald Trump, who expressed this demand most sharply, "Germany, It pays Russia billions of dollars for energy every year and we are expected to protect them from Russia.. what is this like. In addition, the percentage of Germany's obligations to NATO 2 very negligent about military spending.” [1] He declared that some of the American soldiers in this country would be withdrawn..

With Biden's presidency, Germany-US relations normalized again, but the demands for Berlin continued to increase the US military spending and follow a tougher policy against Russia.. Germany, Despite these demands for a long time, he did not increase his military expenditures and continued his balance policy towards Russia.. However, Russia's attacks against Ukraine during the war, Changed the German government's policy towards Moscow. Now Eastern European members of both the USA and the European Union, They expect Germany to take a leadership role in the fight against Russia. However, within Germany there is a serious debate over whether such a role should be undertaken.. As well as those who argue that it is inevitable for Europe's greatest economic power to assume such a role., There are also those who say that Germany, whose military capacity is not sufficient, should refrain from being dragged into direct conflict with Russia..

On the other hand, it is possible that Germany's leadership in Europe in the fight against Russia will make this country a more effective actor in the military and political field in the medium and long term.. Germany, which has increased its military capacity, has turned to a more independent policy against the USA and is independent from NATO by activating the EU in this direction., It may be an incentive to take more specific steps towards the creation of a European-specific security architecture.. It will come to the fore that this will bring the Euro-Atlanticist rivalry in Europe to a new dimension..
3 • How Germany's internal dynamics are affected?

It is seen that the Russia-Ukraine War and the discussions within this framework seriously shook the tripartite coalition government in Germany.. The Greens and the Free Democratic Party, junior partners of the coalition (FDP), Its major partners, the Social Democrat Party, should act in a similar line to the United States regarding sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine, and follow a tougher policy towards Russia. (SPD) pressing. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, a member of the Green party, said her country should refrain from a leadership role in the fight against Russia., Goes so far as to say they are waging a "war against Russia". Similarly, within the FDP, there are politicians who go so far as to be accused of "warmongering"..

Considering that the junior partners of the coalition put pressure on Chancellor Scholz to act in line with the USA in the Sino-US competition., It can be said that the divergence in foreign policy poses a serious risk for the future of the coalition government in Germany.. So far, it seems that Scholz, after resisting for a while, has succumbed to the pressures from the Greens and the FDP, and acted in line with the US line, especially on Russia.. However, it is not only the attitudes of Germany and its Western allies that will determine the consequences of this break with traditional German foreign policy.. What will be the attitudes of Russia and China in the fight against the West and how much the tension will escalate in the next period may result in a reshuffling of cards in German domestic politics..

[Prof. Dr. Kemal Inat, Sakarya University Department of International Relations]

* Ideas in articles, belongs to its author and may not reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy..


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