SPECULUM VERUM
Experts and observers agree that the militarization of international relations has begun, and this is confirmed by the outbreak of a number of hotspots of conflict, foremost of which is the Russian-Ukrainian war, tension in the Korean Peninsula and Southeast Asia between America and its allies, Japan and South Korea, China and North Korea, and the increase in military maneuvers. Especially the Russian-Chinese, which aims to deter American threats.
In addition to this, the volume of military spending has increased, especially by major countries, led by the United States (858 Billion dollar) Followed by China 230 billion dollars, then Russia 70 One billion dollars, and Japan's announcement of its new defense spending policy 80 billion dollars over five years, and the development of these countries for their military capabilities of smart weapons and strategic weapons.
In parallel, the use of the sanctions weapon in international relations by America and the West against adversaries such as Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and others has escalated, at a time when a number of researchers indicate that the US sanctions weapon has lost its usefulness and effectiveness. Because of its frequent use against opponents and violators, on the one hand, and because of the circumvention methods that opponents have mastered in facing these penalties, on the other hand..
The United States can impose a package of sanctions as targets on China, Russia, and Iran, and work to contain and besiege them economically. However, these goals are not achievable on the ground, due to the capabilities and wills opposing it, whether in China, Russia, Iran, or other countries that reject hegemony. American unilateralism.
The United States must understand that the fall and rise of civilizations is a link in a historical spiral. Just as the Roman, British, French, and Mongol empires fell, it is natural that the American empire falls sooner or later, and if not, it is today in a moment of decline..
There are episodes of ups and downs in the history of civilizations. The 18th century was the era of the French Empire and the 18th century 19 It was the British century, and the century 20 It was the American century.
The United States must realize, whether it agrees with it or not, that there is an extraordinary ambition on the part of China and Russia to restore their historical positions as two great powers, each of which imposes its vision that calls for a multipolar world in opposition to the American one pole.. China, Russia and Iran are among the oldest civilizations in this world, and they are working today to discover the sources of their civilized powers..
Despite the presence of the best universities in the United States, the best-funded strategic think tanks, and the most influential media in the world, decision-makers in Washington are deprived of long-term strategic thinking.. They need guidance while they are lost and make great strategic mistakes, especially with regard to China, Russia, Iran and the Arab-Zionist conflict..
Rivalry with the Chinese Dragon
The former Singaporean ambassador to the United Nations, the thinker Kishore Mahboubi, mentions that the former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, assured him personally twice that America does not have a comprehensive and long-term strategy regarding the rise of China.. Mahboubi comments on this by saying:: “There is strong evidence to support his view. Strategy is not an end in itself, it is a means. Before the United States formulates a strategy on China, it must define what goals it hopes to achieve. These goals have never been set, despite a plethora of strategic papers issued by important agencies in Washington.
For example, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said: 26 May 2022: “We will compete with China to defend our interests, and we will define our vision for the future”. But Blinken did not specify America's goals in this “rivalry” with china.
says my beloved: “If the strategic thinkers and policy makers in Washington could pause and look deeply into their policies and actions towards China, they would see that nothing would really hold China back, not even the technology war launched by the United States recently.. It is strange that most of the countries of the world can see this clearly, so they strengthen their relations with China, and interact positively with China's initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative.”.
Newspaper confirms “the people” Chinese that China signed 205 Cooperation document for joint construction of “Belt and Road” with 140 countries and 31 international organizations. from a year 2013 To 2020, commodity trade between China and countries along “Belt and Road” to me 9.2 Trillion US dollars, Chinese companies have also invested the value 136 billion US dollars in countries along “Belt and Road”, was also absorbed approx 60 $1 billion in investment from countries along “Belt and Road.”
It is illogical for any country to reduce its trade with China just to please Washington. Even if we take a country that is geopolitically close to the United States, such as Brazil, it will face great difficulties if it reduces its trade with China, as its trade with China is three times its trade with the United States..
China's economic rise is unstoppable. A study by the Economics and Business Research Center in London shows that China will overtake the United States to become the largest economy in the world in 2028, and confirms that China's success in dealing with “The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions make this competition definitely tilt in favor of China”.
There is no way for Washington to bring down the Chinese Communist Party, just like what happened to the Soviet Communist Party. An academic study issued by the Center was mentioned “ash” at Kennedy College “Harvard” That the support for the central government among the Chinese people rose from 86.1% in a year 2003 to me 93.1% in a year 2016. The Chinese people witnessed in the years 30 The latter is the best social and economic development in its 3,000-year history. It is not reasonable for the Chinese to overthrow the party that provided them with this prosperity.
Russian bear challenge
Washington's intransigence in not listening to Moscow's concern, and standing up to it as a superpower returning once again to the international arena, was a major reason for America's tendency towards militarization and building alliances and strategic partnerships with allies to curtail Russia's rise, as it sought to ignite the focus of Ukraine and drain Russia in it, and build Partnerships with the Europeans to impose sanctions on Russia, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and unlimited military support to Ukraine.
In this atmosphere, Russia was forced into 24 February 2022 To start a special military operation. Subsequently, the West began pumping weapons in all its forms into Ukraine at an unprecedented pace, and at the same time, new sanctions were imposed on Moscow, (The ninth package of EU sanctions was approved in 15 December / December 2022). In all, it is 11 A thousand punitive clauses have been imposed by the West on Russia in the past period, and this is an unprecedented amount of restrictions imposed on one country.
While this economic war is being waged against Russia, officials are singing praises “NATO” That these sanctions will lead to the collapse of the Russian economy, and they claim that the collapse will reach 20% At least, according to a report by the site “bloomberg”.
But the American goals are not achievable on the ground. Russia believes that an attack 11 September 2001 It was a sign that the United States could be defeated, so it was an opportunity for Russia, led by Putin, to regain influence in the world.. That is why Russia entered a war with Georgia in 2008, regained Crimea, and intervened in eastern Ukraine in 2008. 2014 By declaring my republic “Luhansk” And”Donbass”, and intervened in the Syrian war in the year 2015. This intervention was Russia's second return to the Middle East after the first intervention in the year 1956 Following the defeat of the triple aggression.
Western anti-Russian steps have led to more cohesion of Russian society. (Public support for Putin has remained level 80%). Some of the Russian dissidents left the country, and this is a fact, and they are less than 200 thousand, while the population of Russia is over 150 Million, taking into account the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions, namely: Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and the majority of the population of these regions voted in favor of joining.
The Russian economy was able to adapt to the imposed sanctions. The results show, at the end of 2022, that the economy will decline 2.9% Only, after the important actions he took. Russian President Vladimir Putin says he will not 0.9% In 2023, and then the growth starts. This highlights the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of mounting challenges.
One of the important measures that contributed to mitigating the impact of the sanctions was the formation of a coordination council by presidential decree. The Council reports to the Government of the Russian Federation and is chaired by the Prime Minister, and its purpose is to meet the needs of the special military operation (This includes supplying and maintaining weapons, providing the necessary equipment, financial allocations, medical services, carrying out construction and equipment, and providing logistical services.).
says a Russian researcher “With the recovery in our economy, we will move forward with the objectives of the special military operation, and for this purpose, we have conducted a limited mobilization with conscription 300 A thousand in the army, it began 77 A thousand of them serve in combat units, while the rest continue training for a period of time in camps and rehabilitation centers. We are taking vigorous steps to increase cooperation with developing countries that refuse, despite pressure from the West, to join the implementation of sanctions”.
And given state dynamics, Russia appears to be benefiting more from the void in international leadership than any other competitor. As well as China, which was prepared by a magazine “Foreign Affairs” America in 2020 “Now maneuver for world leadership. At a time when the United States is failing as the new Corona epidemic turns into a global event. In 1956, a botched intervention in the Suez Canal revealed the decline of Great Britain and marked the end of the UK's influence as a world power.”.
Isn't the abject failure of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan enough to say that we are in a “Another Swiss moment”! In the words of a magazine “Foreign Affairs”.
I think Richard Haass, president of the US Council on Foreign Relations, described the international reality as reviving the atmosphere of the Cold War in 2022 he “back date”More intelligent and farsighted than the vision of the American thinker Francis Fukuyama, who saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a sign of “The end of history”Considering that the global conflict has been resolved with the victory of capitalism as a comprehensive civilized idea and project, while it has collapsed “evil empire” Communism proved its failure forever. Thus, history has reached its final station, according to his claim, whose insignificance has been proven by subsequent decades.