SPECULUM VERUM
In response to a question, Belyaev ruled out the occurrence of reactions from the West to the Russian counter-sanctions, because Europe - according to his opinion- all exhausted “restrictions” possible to impose on the Russian economy.
But that does not negate - according to what he says- Russia will need time to replace buyers from Europe, which may lead to a slight decrease in oil production in Russia in the near future.
In terms of numbers, the production of raw materials in the country may decrease by about 5-7% The equivalent of 500-700 thousand barrels per day.
On this basis, Mikhailov is likely to go to the option of stopping production in the current circumstances, until new sales policies are settled that guarantee overcoming the problem of the price ceiling..
He concluded that the validity of Putin's decree regarding retaliatory measures to impose a ceiling on oil prices from Russia until July 1, 2023 is an opportunity. “To bring these countries back to their senses” according to his expression.
Russian experts in the economy believe that the Russian decision is sovereign with distinction, but it may lead to a dangerous rise in oil prices in the global market, and at the same time, it will cause “Strike” To the parties that took the initiative to put a ceiling on Russian oil prices.
Rather, some of them do not rule out that some European Union countries would request an exception for them from adhering to the ceiling for pricing Russian oil, and among these countries are Germany and Poland, which announced that they would completely abandon Russian oil, but, after that, they submitted requests to pump Russian oil into it in general 2023.
Economic researcher Victor Lachon says that Putin's decree comes in response to the West's attempts “clear” In reducing dependence on Russian energy resources, and thus reducing Moscow's profits “excess” From the sale of raw materials, as well as to counter the avalanche of pressure on the Kremlin regarding the events in Ukraine.
And he adds - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net- The decree was carefully drawn up and, in the first place, is a warning message to countries that have decided to join the mechanism “roofing” the price of Russian oil, that it will not receive oil from Russia at such prices, and that it will have to consider now where and whether it can buy it at such prices.
On the other hand, the Russian expert indicates that due to the loss of the European market, Russian companies will be forced to offer large discounts on their products. Today, a barrel of Russian Urals oil is sold at an average of $ 57.49, while Brent raw materials are traded in the global market at a price 85-86 dollars per barrel.
beneficiary parties
Lashon points out that one of the repercussions of this decree was to give China and India, basically, the opportunity to benefit from the confrontation between Russia and the West, by increasing their imports of Russian oil, and at the same time, by buying it at a great discount..
As for the economist, Mikhail Belyaev, he says that it would not be to impose a ban on the sale of Russian oil to countries that have joined the price ceiling mechanism; Negative impact on the Russian macroeconomy.
In this context, he explains that the unsold quantities of oil can be diverted to China, and at the same time, he confirms that it was very important for Russia to take retaliatory measures, otherwise other countries would think that Moscow had surrendered to the price restrictions imposed by the West..
Moscow- Moscow announced the cessation of supplies of oil and petroleum products to countries and companies that joined the price ceiling for Russian oil and petroleum products, in response to what it considered unfriendly and illegal measures of the Western system, and as a measure to protect its national interests..
This came by a decree issued by President Vladimir Putin, which also stipulated the prohibition of the supply of oil to individuals and foreign legal entities in the event that the price ceiling was adopted..
According to the decree, Russia will stop from the first of February 2023 from selling oil to countries that have adopted a price ceiling set at $60 per barrel, but the embargo can be lifted in some individual cases based on “special decision” from the boss.
Russia had warned earlier that Western attempts to put a ceiling on the prices of Russian oil products would not go unanswered, and Putin said at the time that his country “It will look for other promising partners in actively developing regions of the global economy, such as Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.”.
As for the Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, he stated that Russia will either redirect supplies to other market partners, or reduce production..
New battle
With this decision, Russia will have made its first reaction to the establishment of the United States and other Western countries in the spring of 2008 2022 By refusing to buy oil from Moscow, and by imposing, on December 5, the European Union a partial embargo on the import of Russian raw materials.
The matter did not stop at that point, as the European Union's decision was followed by a similar decision on the same day for the G7 countries (USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Britain) And the European Union and Australia prevent their companies from securing and transporting oil from Russia by sea to other regions of the world, at a price higher than 60 dollars per barrel.
Proceeding from here, Russia has in recent months largely redirected its exports and increased the volume of its oil supplies to China, India and other countries in Asia and the Pacific, as well as to Africa and Latin America..