SPECULUM VERUM
After the Ukraine crisis、Although a considerable portion of export settlements from Russia to China has been switched to the renminbi、Chinese companies exporting to Russia、Reluctant to switch to renminbi settlement due to conventional business practices (mostly dollar settlement)。For this reason、Exports to Russia were declining due to Western sanctions。However、The recent development of an environment that allows Chinese exporters to shift their payments to the renminbi has had a positive effect.。
that time、played an important role、The Chinese government has been operating the renminbi international interbank payment system "CIPS" since 2015.。As of June this year, 1,341 banks are participating in CIPS.、Japanese megabanks and Deutsche Bank、Major Western banks such as JPMorgan Chase are listed.。
Due to the large number of Russian banks that were excluded from "SWIFT" (the Society for International Interbank Telecommunications, an international settlement network between banks) connected to this CIPS、China's exporting companies are shifting to renminbi settlement、Exports from China to Russia have recovered rapidly.。
7As of mid-month, 23 Russian banks were connected to CIPS.、Gazprom Bank, which is owned by state-owned Gazprom, is also preparing to connect.。
According to SWIFT, the proportion of RMB settlements outside mainland China is、In Russia it was 0.6% in April、7surged 3.9% in the month。Regional rankings、Hong Kong (71%)、It ranks third after the UK (6%)。
Investment in renminbi-denominated assets is also booming in Russia。
Moscow exchange in early August、Started trading of Chinese yuan-denominated bonds。The first renminbi bond to be traded was、2027Two bonds issued by Russian aluminum giant Rusal with maturity of。All of the corporate bonds, which were worth 2 billion yuan ($296.22 million) each,、Purchased by an investor in Russia。
Russia has limited access to the dollar and euro markets.、Many Russian companies are expected to increase their domestic yuan-denominated borrowings in the future.。
The renminbi, which is increasing its presence as a curiosity, is sanctions against Russia、Don't overestimate。
According to SWIFT、In June of this year, the RMB's international settlement share was only 2.2%, ranking fifth in the world.。The difference between the top dollar (41.2%) and second place euro (35.6%) is large.。The renminbi, whose capital transactions are regulated, does not meet hard currency requirements either.。
We will continue to expand our market share、The general assessment is that it is unlikely to become a threat to the dollar or euro in the short term.。
Russia, which is promoting renminbi settlement with China,、Efforts have also begun to use the local currency ruble as a settlement currency.。
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014、It operates an interbank communication system called the System for Financial Messages (SPFS).、Now、Russia and Armenia、Belarus、Kazakhstan、It is said that it is gradually being used among the banks of the Eurasian Economic Union, which consists of Kyrgyzstan.。
Russia is further motivated by the Ukraine crisis、It is strengthening the movement to pay for its own natural gas in rubles to "unfriendly countries"。maybe because of that、The ruble's rate against the dollar, which crashed immediately after the invasion of Ukraine, is now、It has risen to a level that exceeds before the invasion。
Russia is working to build a payment system using bilateral currencies with Iran as well.。
Iran Currency Exchange July、By listing the ruble-riyal currency pair、Both countries can now settle trading bonds in their own currencies。This makes、Russia and Iran amid Western sanctions isolate them internationally、The goal is to double last year's trade volume ($4 billion) to $8 billion as soon as possible.。Iran has pledged this effort to the Turkish lira and the Indian rupee.、I would like to be able to use it for dirhams of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), etc.。
India, which is rapidly increasing its presence、It is watching intently to make its own currency, the rupee, into a settlement currency.。
Reserve Bank of India (Central Bank) mid-July、Approved Rupee Trade Settlement System with Other Countries。When using the payment system in rupees、Commercial banks must obtain authorization from the central bank in advance.、It is necessary to open a dedicated account (cash settlement account for interbank transactions)、This makes、Russia, Sri Lanka etc.、Transactions in rupees will be possible with countries where it is difficult to settle in currencies such as dollars.。
Indian government is also looking to provide incentives to exporters to encourage settlement in rupees。Now、Eligible for trade assistance programs that apply to fully convertible currencies such as dollars and euros (exporters receive a partial refund of taxes and duties they owe)、preparing to add rupees。
in this way、The movement to build a new payment currency is suddenly becoming active.、It has been pointed out that these systems have disadvantages such as ``slow processing speed'', ``high cost'', and ``prone to error'' compared to SWIFT.、Its introduction and expansion are by no means easy。
But、If we look back in history、The rise and fall of international currencies、It has occurred discontinuously in the wake of major events such as wars and crises.。
The war situation in Ukraine is unpredictable、The past six months have shown that the influence of Western powers on the international community has declined to an all-time low.。
This is most notably manifested in、Africa, a former colony of the West。Western countries, which have a monopoly on currency sovereignty, have used payment networks as weapons to keep their eyes on them.、Most African countries fail to comply with sanctions in Ukraine crisis。
It is estimated that the population will surge to 2.5 billion by 2050.、Africa, also known as the “last frontier,” is extremely promising as a market.、With China, which leads the world in terms of trade value、The presence of Russia, which supplies weapons and food, is large。The longer the Ukraine crisis lasts、The axis of Africa, which seeks practical profits, may tilt further from the West to Russia and China.。
So far, the dollar and the euro have been monopolized as settlement currencies in Africa.、As China and Russia began to build alternative international payment systems,、In the future, there is a possibility that the "composition surrounding currency" will change significantly.。
Even if settlement currencies diversify、Dollar hegemony won't end anytime soon、The world financial and economic system is now、standing at a crossroads。「10～20年というタイムスパンでどのように変容していくか」を虚心坦懐に考察していくことが何よりも重要だろう。