How Tokyo's policy will affect security in the Asia-Pacific region

In the context of imposing restrictions on Russia, representatives of the political establishment of Japan made a number of statements, That, probably, hopelessly spoil bilateral relations. Current economic, Financial, Technological, visa and other sanctions, undoubtedly, demonstrate the commitment of modern Tokyo to the course of Washington and its allies. However, more dangerous trends have also emerged., capable of upsetting the delicate balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and causing a "wave" of instability with hard-to-predict consequences.

In particular, at the end of February 2022 G. former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on air Fuji Television Said, that despite Japan's participation in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) on the rights of the state, not possessing such a weapon, as well as the proclaimed "three non-nuclear principles", Tokyo should think about improving its security and not treat the issue of nuclear weapons as a taboo.. According to the politician, the Japanese government has repeatedly stressed the danger of China's growing military activity., as well as the DPRK's nuclear missile program, however, these and other threats can be most effectively contained only through the establishment of a joint nuclear mission with the United States..

Such experience is applied within the framework of NATO and provides for the deployment and storage of American nuclear weapons in the territories of non-nuclear members of the alliance.. Today, U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons (about 150 aerial bombs B61 with variable power charge) posted in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Turkey. Country data (Turkey to a lesser extent) participate in application planning and strike training. However, storage liability, control and command rests with the U.S. Air Force, and only Washington decides, when and to what extent these weapons should be used.

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Russia, China, Iran, with the support of a number of other countries (Cuba, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Syria, Philippines) Advocate an end to the "horizontal proliferation" of nuclear weapons and the abandonment of joint nuclear missions, as contrary to the NPT. In a video message at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva 1 March 2022 G. With. Lavrov stressed, that NATO's joint nuclear missions are actually practicing the possibility of striking Russia, therefore, all American nuclear weapons should be returned home as soon as possible., and the associated infrastructure in Europe to destroy.

According to Abe, Japan, victim of atomic bombings in 1945 G., advocates global renunciation of nuclear weapons, but in the face of the heightened need to protect the lives of the country's citizens, it is worth considering various options for strengthening security. He noted, that Ukraine, who agreed to transfer nuclear weapons to Russia, remaining on the territory of the country after the collapse of the USSR, as a result, she could not secure security guarantees.

Current Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, a family who hails from Hiroshima, was forced to immediately interrupt such dangerous reflections of his predecessor. According to the statement of the current head of government, a joint nuclear mission with the United States is unacceptable for Japan from the point of view of compliance with the "three non-nuclear principles", proclaimed in 1968 G. Prime Minister Sato Eisaku and approved by parliament three years later. According to these principles, Tokyo undertakes not to possess nuclear weapons, not to develop or import into the territory of the country. China immediately demanded that Tokyo reaffirm its commitment to renounce the possession of nuclear weapons in any form.

Do not forget about the presence since the late 1960s.. secret agreement between Tokyo and Washington, providing for the possibility of deploying American nuclear weapons on the island of Okinawa in extraordinary circumstances. This document became widely known to the world community only in 2005 G., and whether non-nuclear principles have been observed in practice, Representing, rather, political statement, rather than an obligation, it is impossible to say for sure so far.

In 2017 G. former Liberal Democratic Party General Secretary Ishiba Shigeru has already spoken in favor of Japan acquiring nuclear capabilities., if it becomes necessary. According to a number of experts, such actions do not formally contradict the Constitution of Japan. Among representatives of the political elite of the country, there are still doubts about the effectiveness of the American "nuclear umbrella", despite the fact that, that in April 2021 G. The White House has already reaffirmed its support for Japan's security using the full range of its capabilities., including nuclear weapons.

Over the years of operation of nuclear power plants, Japan has accumulated about 45 tons of plutonium, in this case only 9 tons stored directly in the country, and the rest of the stock is still in the UK and France, but is refundable. The so-called MOX fuel, which includes plutonium produced in reactors, has not yet become widespread in the energy sector due to the difficulties of its processing, which creates uncertainty about the fate of a huge amount of nuclear material, even if it is under IAEA safeguards. However, contrary to opinions that, what Tokyo can create before 6 Thd. nuclear weapons, it is impossible to use the produced plutonium for the production of warheads without serious reprocessing. Whether Tokyo has real technological capabilities for this is a debatable issue..

Japan has technologies for the production of missile delivery vehicles. These include cruise missiles already in service. ASM-3 (range 400 km), JASSM and LRASM (over 500 km), as well as missile weapons under development, including hypersonic. In the beginning 2021 G. it was announced that there were intentions to increase the range of ground-based cruise missiles, sea- and air-based up to 1 500 km with characterization, increasing the chances of a successful strike (low visibility, complex trajectory, variable speed on the route). Technologies for the creation of ballistic missiles are also practically mastered by the industry - the most advanced model is the three-stage Epsilon-5 launch vehicle with a payload of more than 1200 kg. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency has Earth remote sensing satellites, telecommunication and reconnaissance satellites,in the future, combat spacecraft-interceptors can be deployed .

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In the equation with Japan's nuclear potential, only the real scale and pace of production of special warheads of missiles and bombs remain unknown., and the possibility of such a decision.

Even with the preservation of the non-nuclear status, the nature of Tokyo's military construction casts doubt on the pacifism of the country's leadership.. Of particular concern to Russia (and China) represent the acquisition of the ability to strike ground targets with high-precision missile weapons, improvement of missile defense systems, as well as the by no means hypothetical deployment of American intermediate and shorter-range missiles on Japanese territory. So, The US Marine Corps in Okinawa already has tactical missile systems, in the future capable of using hypersonic missiles.

In an interview on Fuji TV Abe Shinzo also touched on the subject of Taiwan. According to the leading figure of Japanese politics, The United States should abandon the position of "strategic uncertainty" regarding the military guarantees of the island's security, since only a direct and unambiguous statement, that Washington will intervene if Taiwan is attacked, can contain Beijing. The former prime minister noted, that Yonaguni Island, part of Okinawa Prefecture, located just in 110 km from the Taiwanese coast, and in case of Chinese aggression, Japan will lose control of air and sea space in the area. In the beginning 2022 G. Prime Minister Kishida has already spoken about the need to devote considerable attention to the defense of the Nansei Islands, separating the East China and Philippine Seas and almost close to. Taiwan.

Also in August 2021 G. Tokyo and Taipei discussed the prospects for increasing the volume of trade and economic, investment and technological cooperation, as well as the development of ties in the field of defense and security. According to representatives of the ruling parties of the parties, the policy of the Chinese leadership indicates clear intentions to isolate the island and force the democratic administration to reduce independence, which will lead to the formation of dependence on the mainland. In this regard, the representatives of the LDPJ did not rule out the imminent accession of Taiwan to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership., as well as expanding membership in intergovernmental international organizations, including WHO.

During 2021 G. Japanese politicians, including Deputy Prime Minister Aso Taro, openly spoke about the serious danger for Japan of a possible military operation of the PRC to return Taiwan and the need to assist in the defense of the island in the event of an attack. In the annual defense report, presented in July 2021 G., for the first time, Tokyo's position on the island was quite clearly indicated. A number of politicians have, that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will have to take the side of the US Armed Forces to repel Chinese aggression. Certainly, such statements did not go unnoticed in Beijing, where they were called completely unacceptable and dangerous. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijiang, Japan is fully responsible to the Chinese people for the existence of the "Taiwan issue" and should be careful in words and actions.. Any attempt to support the Taiwanese "secessionists" will be regarded as interference in the internal affairs of the PRC., he summed up.

It is worth noting, that in the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China on international relations, entering a new era, and global sustainability, adopted in February 2022 G., Moscow Expresses Unconditional Support for One China Principle. This should be understood as the recognition of Taiwan as an integral part of the PRC., while a number of states, at the suggestion of the United States, rather, talk about a "united China", without specifying the recognition of the sovereignty of the communist authorities over the island. By the way, Taipei protested against the joint statement of the leaders of Russia and China and at the end of February imposed sanctions against our country due to the situation in Ukraine.

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Finally, extremely worried about Tokyo's reaction to the aggravation of the international situation in connection with the special operation of the RF Armed Forces. The imposition of sanctions is quite expected, given Tokyo's following in the wake of American foreign policy.. The nature and scope of restrictions this time turned out to be much more significant., than in 2014 G., but, for example, the fuel and energy sector has not yet fallen under them.

Disappointing is the refusal of the Japanese side to consider issues of economic cooperation outside the context of resolving the "territorial issue" and to discuss the signing of a peace treaty before satisfying their claims.. Actually, all agreements, achieved B. Putin and S. Abe in Singapore 2018 G., turned out to be disavowed. More likely, remain unrealized and the "Plan of 8 points", presented in 2016 G. in Sochi, which until recently has significantly contributed to the development of bilateral cooperation. Negotiations of Japanese Foreign Minister Y. Hayashi and Minister of Economic Development of Russia M. Reshetnikova, held in February 2022 of the year, Also, most likely, will not give positive results in the near future. According to some unofficial reports, while the Japanese side does not consider it possible to further cooperation in trade, economic and investment spheres.

Official Tokyo for the first time interpreted Russia's actions as "aggression". In this regard, the process of discussing the need to change Art.. 9 Constitution, prohibiting having armed forces and offensive weapons. Other parliamentarians are gradually joining the initiative of the Communist Party of Japan to strengthen the country's defense capability. The statement of the Japanese Foreign Ministry regarding Russia's "occupation" of the southern part of the Kuril Islands is also very symptomatic., what, in the opinion of official Tokyo - a violation of international law, like the "attack" on Ukraine. Japan's return to such rhetoric is unlikely to contribute to the development of bilateral cooperation..

In this connection, there are growing chances of legitimizing the actually already established course of the Land of the Rising Sun to increase defense spending - by 2022 year the budget was 47,2 billion dollars. with the prospect of increasing 6,8 billion dollars. Additional expenses are explained by the acquisition of weapons and equipment, underdelivered due to the epidemic COVID-19, as well as protective measures to respond to threats from the DPRK and the PRC. Taking into account the latest statements by Japanese diplomats, Russia may also be on the official list of enemies. Increasing the funding to the level offered by American analysts 2% GDP (already in order 1,3%) will ensure further improvement of the technological level and strike capabilities of the still Self-Defense Forces, which will irreversibly change the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.



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