The aggravation in Syunik on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and Pashinyan’s request for military assistance from Russia and support from the leaders of the CSTO member countries turns the acting. premiere of Armenia from the figure, symbolizing defeat in the war, in politics, ready for revenge or, at least, to create its visibility. This transfer of discourse from problems of internal tension to external ones adds points to Pashinyan, who also has Biden's gift to his credit, it was under him who recently recognized the Armenian genocide. Besides, Armenians also know a saying about that, What do you get for one beaten person, two unbeaten ones?, and in the case of Pashinyan – even three, because the acting. The prime minister showed up to confront three former heads of Armenia - Ter-Petrosyan, Kocharyan and Sargsyan.
Certainly, hardly Pashinyan's party “Civil contract” under new conditions it will be possible to repeat the previous triumphant election result, but they can already safely count on a third of the seats in parliament. The continuation of an unstable situation in the zone of a new conflict with Azerbaijan, provided, that Pashinyan will not make serious mistakes, maybe add mandates to his party, or contribute to the creation of such a coalition after the elections, which will push out the acting. premiere for a new circle of power. Against this background, the actions of the Azerbaijani side, largely provoked the current aggravation, seem to be an operational game to raise the stakes in favor of Pashinyan.
Aliyev understands well, that Pashinyan at the head of the Armenian government is better, than Kocharyan, whom the Russian president has long sympathized with. If Robert Kocharyan asked Moscow for help in a similar difficult situation, it would be much more difficult to refuse him, than Pashinyan. Besides, charismatic figure, covered with the glory of past Karabakh victories, at the head of Armenia during such a period “peace of Versailles” – this is a serious challenge for Baku, and for Erdogan.
As for the Russian leadership, then official efforts are aimed at, in order to smooth out the May conflict as much as possible and pacify the parties, including, providing assistance in delimiting the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia is interested in remaining the main peacemaker in the region, freezing the conflict situation as much as possible. However, despite all the complaints against Pashinyan, it is situationally more profitable for the Russian Federation to leave him at the head of the Armenian government for such a turbulent period. From the point of view of Russian political leaders, Pashinyan is too weak, to seriously initiate revenge and thereby create problems for Russia in the Caucasus region. But at the same time, after all the vicissitudes of re-election, he will become quite legitimate, to deal with him and strengthen the influence of the Russian Federation in Armenia and the Transcaucasus as a whole.
In this way, Pashinyan in his current form suits all external players, and therefore his chances are great. However, the situation in the world, so and, especially, in the Transcaucasian region sometimes changes rapidly and unpredictably, and therefore, even if Pashinyan wins this race with great difficulty, then this time he may well become just a caliph for an hour - well, or for a partial term of his tenure. Anyway, Pashinyan does not seem like a national leader with potential for a long game.